There are a couple of technical levels in USDJPY that are converging together to provide formidable support.
Firstly there is the massive 50% fibonacci retracement level of the decline from 147.67 (August 1998) to 75.35 (October 2011).
Then this converges with a cloud top on the weekly chart at 111.30-20 that stretches out until June 2017.
If this area of price between 111.50-20 holds we will see higher prices. But if USDJPY closes below this area of support we could see a flush out with many stops being triggered and price puking lower into the 109 area, with 105 a potential downside target.
There are a couple of events to watch out for, Trumps comments on currency manipulation, he could potentially “level the playing field” by weakening USD, or by forcing Chinese President Xi Jinping to float the Yuan. But given the positive comments coming out of the Trump Abe meeting it looks as if Trump will hold off labeling countries currency manipulators for now.
Also watch out for any heavy handed reaction to North Korea’s saber rattling, after they launched a ballistic missile during the Trump Abe meeting.